📈 Ladder Backtester Ladder strategy vs. buy & hold

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COST · Costco Wholesale Corporation #3

2025-05-30T00:00 → 2026-05-29T00:00 · fmp · 1d · lifo · created 2026-05-31T04:09

Strategy return -1.28% $9,872
Buy & hold return -8.06% $9,194
Strategy − Buy&Hold +6.78 pp $+678
Trades 34 / 32 buys / sells
Start price (B)1040.1800 Target (Z)none
Capital (A)10,000 First step (C)6,000
Steps (N)4 Threshold (X)1.0%

Annualized & capital-efficiency metrics (1.00 yr)

Strategy CAGR -1.28% whole pot, annualized
Buy & hold CAGR -8.09% all-in at t0, annualized
Money-weighted IRR -1.48% on capital while deployed
Avg capital deployed 86.9% rest sat idle in cash

CAGR grows the whole pot A, so idle ladder cash dilutes it. IRR counts only dollars actually in the market over time, so it runs higher — the gap is the cash drag, which Avg capital deployed measures directly. IRR only "counts" if that idle cash earns its opportunity cost elsewhere.

Strategy vs benchmarks — returns & drawdown

Series XIRR Max drawdown Downside capture
Ladder strategy -1.48% -16.49%
Buy & hold -8.09% -19.57% 90%

Max drawdown is the bad-market headline — how deep each fell from its high. Downside capture is the bear-market analog to alpha: of a benchmark's loss in its down periods, the share the strategy absorbed (under 100% = protective, negative = the strategy gained while the benchmark fell).

Portfolio value: strategy vs. buy & hold

⬇ Equity CSV

Price & trades

Trade log (67)

⬇ Trades CSV
# WhenActionPriceShares Amount Shares held Cash bal. Portfolio
1 2025-05-30T00:00 INITIAL 1040.1800 5.7682 6,000.00 5.7682 4,000.00 10,000.00
2 2025-06-05T00:00 BUY 1010.8100 0.9893 1,000.00 6.7575 3,000.00 9,830.59
3 2025-06-11T00:00 BUY 996.7800 1.0032 1,000.00 7.7608 2,000.00 9,735.78
4 2025-06-16T00:00 BUY 984.3600 1.0159 1,000.00 8.7767 1,000.00 9,639.39
5 2025-06-23T00:00 SELL 1004.4800 1.0159 1,020.44 7.7608 2,020.44 9,815.98
6 2025-06-25T00:00 BUY 986.5400 1.0136 1,000.00 8.7744 1,020.44 9,676.75
7 2025-07-10T00:00 BUY 970.1700 1.0307 1,000.00 9.8052 20.44 9,533.11
8 2025-07-14T00:00 SELL 980.9100 1.0307 1,011.07 8.7744 1,031.51 9,638.42
9 2025-07-15T00:00 BUY 967.6800 1.0334 1,000.00 9.8078 31.51 9,522.33
10 2025-07-16T00:00 BUY 951.3700 0.0331 31.51 9.8409 0.00 9,362.37
11 2025-08-06T00:00 SELL 968.5600 0.0331 32.08 9.8078 32.08 9,531.53
12 2025-08-07T00:00 SELL 977.4500 1.0334 1,010.10 8.7744 1,042.18 9,618.72
13 2025-08-22T00:00 BUY 958.5400 1.0433 1,000.00 9.8177 42.18 9,452.80
14 2025-08-25T00:00 BUY 941.5800 0.0448 42.18 9.8625 0.00 9,286.29
15 2025-09-04T00:00 SELL 955.9000 0.0448 42.82 9.8177 42.82 9,427.52
16 2025-09-08T00:00 SELL 971.8500 1.0433 1,013.89 8.7744 1,056.70 9,584.12
17 2025-09-10T00:00 BUY 956.2900 1.0457 1,000.00 9.8201 56.70 9,447.59
18 2025-09-12T00:00 SELL 967.9000 1.0457 1,012.14 8.7744 1,068.84 9,561.60
19 2025-09-16T00:00 BUY 952.0700 1.0503 1,000.00 9.8248 68.84 9,422.70
20 2025-09-17T00:00 SELL 963.0300 1.0503 1,011.51 8.7744 1,080.36 9,530.38
21 2025-09-18T00:00 BUY 952.3600 1.0500 1,000.00 9.8244 80.36 9,436.75
22 2025-09-26T00:00 BUY 915.9500 0.0877 80.36 9.9122 0.00 9,079.05
23 2025-09-30T00:00 SELL 925.6300 0.0877 81.20 9.8244 81.20 9,175.00
24 2025-10-03T00:00 BUY 915.3800 0.0887 81.20 9.9131 0.00 9,074.30
25 2025-10-09T00:00 SELL 942.8900 0.0887 83.64 9.8244 83.64 9,347.01
26 2025-10-10T00:00 BUY 930.0100 0.0899 83.64 9.9144 0.00 9,220.47
27 2025-10-14T00:00 SELL 946.5100 0.0899 85.13 9.8244 85.13 9,384.05
28 2025-10-16T00:00 BUY 925.6200 0.0920 85.13 9.9164 0.00 9,178.82
29 2025-10-17T00:00 SELL 936.3300 0.0920 86.11 9.8244 86.11 9,285.03
30 2025-10-28T00:00 BUY 924.1600 0.0932 86.11 9.9176 0.00 9,165.46
31 2025-11-04T00:00 SELL 940.7400 0.0932 87.66 9.8244 87.66 9,329.90
32 2025-11-06T00:00 BUY 923.5800 0.0949 87.66 9.9193 0.00 9,161.31
33 2026-01-12T00:00 SELL 943.0800 0.0949 89.51 9.8244 89.51 9,354.74
34 2026-01-16T00:00 SELL 963.6100 1.0500 1,011.81 8.7744 1,101.32 9,556.43
35 2026-01-29T00:00 BUY 952.8900 1.0494 1,000.00 9.8239 101.32 9,462.37
36 2026-01-30T00:00 BUY 940.2500 0.1078 101.32 9.9316 0.00 9,338.20
37 2026-02-02T00:00 SELL 968.3600 0.1078 104.35 9.8239 104.35 9,617.38
38 2026-02-03T00:00 SELL 977.9200 1.0494 1,026.27 8.7744 1,130.62 9,711.29
39 2026-02-06T00:00 SELL 1001.1600 1.0136 1,014.82 7.7608 2,145.44 9,915.21
40 2026-02-10T00:00 BUY 971.2300 1.0296 1,000.00 8.7904 1,145.44 9,682.93
41 2026-02-12T00:00 SELL 998.8600 1.0296 1,028.45 7.7608 2,173.89 9,925.81
42 2026-02-13T00:00 SELL 1018.4800 1.0032 1,021.77 6.7575 3,195.66 10,078.07
43 2026-02-18T00:00 BUY 996.0800 1.0039 1,000.00 7.7615 2,195.66 9,926.71
44 2026-02-20T00:00 BUY 985.2700 1.0150 1,000.00 8.7764 1,195.66 9,842.80
45 2026-02-24T00:00 SELL 998.4300 1.0150 1,013.36 7.7615 2,209.01 9,958.30
46 2026-02-26T00:00 BUY 986.7400 1.0134 1,000.00 8.7749 1,209.01 9,867.57
47 2026-02-27T00:00 SELL 1010.7900 1.0134 1,024.37 7.7615 2,233.39 10,078.61
48 2026-03-03T00:00 SELL 1007.7700 1.0039 1,011.74 6.7575 3,245.12 10,055.17
49 2026-03-05T00:00 BUY 982.5700 1.0177 1,000.00 7.7753 2,245.12 9,884.88
50 2026-03-06T00:00 SELL 998.1000 1.0177 1,015.81 6.7575 3,260.93 10,005.63
51 2026-03-18T00:00 BUY 979.9200 1.0205 1,000.00 7.7780 2,260.93 9,882.77
52 2026-03-23T00:00 BUY 965.7300 1.0355 1,000.00 8.8135 1,260.93 9,772.40
53 2026-03-26T00:00 SELL 979.6500 1.0355 1,014.41 7.7780 2,275.34 9,895.09
54 2026-03-30T00:00 SELL 996.5800 1.0205 1,017.00 6.7575 3,292.34 10,026.77
55 2026-04-08T00:00 SELL 1030.2700 0.9893 1,019.25 5.7682 4,311.60 10,254.43
56 2026-04-10T00:00 BUY 998.4700 1.0015 1,000.00 6.7698 3,311.60 10,071.00
57 2026-04-13T00:00 BUY 980.8500 1.0195 1,000.00 7.7893 2,311.60 9,951.72
58 2026-04-17T00:00 SELL 999.8900 1.0195 1,019.41 6.7698 3,331.01 10,100.03
59 2026-04-23T00:00 SELL 1014.3800 1.0015 1,015.93 5.7682 4,346.94 10,198.12
60 2026-04-27T00:00 BUY 998.0100 1.0020 1,000.00 6.7702 3,346.94 10,103.70
61 2026-04-30T00:00 SELL 1014.5300 1.0020 1,016.55 5.7682 4,363.49 10,215.54
62 2026-05-06T00:00 BUY 995.7500 1.0043 1,000.00 6.7725 3,363.49 10,107.21
63 2026-05-07T00:00 SELL 1012.0600 1.0043 1,016.38 5.7682 4,379.87 10,217.67
64 2026-05-11T00:00 BUY 999.4700 1.0005 1,000.00 6.7688 3,379.87 10,145.05
65 2026-05-12T00:00 SELL 1021.8800 1.0005 1,022.42 5.7682 4,402.30 10,296.74
66 2026-05-26T00:00 BUY 1002.9300 0.9971 1,000.00 6.7653 3,402.30 10,187.43
67 2026-05-29T00:00 BUY 956.3200 1.0457 1,000.00 7.8110 2,402.30 9,872.10