📈 Ladder Backtester Ladder strategy vs. buy & hold

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COST · Costco Wholesale Corporation #24

2023-06-14T00:00 → 2026-06-12T00:00 · fmp · 1d · scale QQQ reserve · created 2026-06-14T20:32

Strategy return 127.43% $22,743
Buy & hold return 86.33% $18,633
S&P 500 (SPY) 69.67% $16,967
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) 97.14% $19,714
Strategy − Buy&Hold +41.09 pp $+4,109
Trades 53 / 81 buys / sells
Start price (B)527.2000 Target (Z)none
Capital (A)10,000 First step (C)7,000
Steps (N)8 Threshold (X)2.0%

Annualized & capital-efficiency metrics (3.00 yr)

Strategy CAGR 31.56% whole pot, annualized
Buy & hold CAGR 23.10% all-in at t0, annualized
Money-weighted IRR 31.56% on capital while deployed
Avg capital deployed 20.6% rest sat idle in cash

CAGR grows the whole pot A, so idle ladder cash dilutes it. IRR counts only dollars actually in the market over time, so it runs higher — the gap is the cash drag, which Avg capital deployed measures directly. IRR only "counts" if that idle cash earns its opportunity cost elsewhere.

Strategy vs benchmarks — returns & drawdown

Series XIRR Max drawdown Downside capture
Ladder strategy 31.56% -21.27%
Buy & hold 23.10% -20.28% 53%
S&P 500 (SPY) 19.30% -17.71% 104%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) 25.43% -21.66% 96%

Max drawdown is the bad-market headline — how deep each fell from its high. Downside capture is the bear-market analog to alpha: of a benchmark's loss in its down periods, the share the strategy absorbed (under 100% = protective, negative = the strategy gained while the benchmark fell).

Portfolio value: strategy vs. buy & hold

⬇ Equity CSV

Price & trades

Trade log (135)

⬇ Trades CSV
# WhenActionPriceShares Amount Shares held Cash bal. Portfolio
1 2023-06-14T00:00 INITIAL 527.2000 13.2777 7,000.00 13.2777 3,000.00 10,000.00
2 2023-06-30T00:00 SELL 538.3800 0.6965 375.00 12.5812 3,403.86 10,177.30
3 2023-07-07T00:00 BUY 525.0500 0.7142 375.00 13.2954 2,999.56 9,980.30
4 2023-07-12T00:00 SELL 538.0000 0.6970 375.00 12.5984 3,428.45 10,206.36
5 2023-07-17T00:00 SELL 552.9600 0.6782 375.00 11.9202 3,893.48 10,484.86
6 2023-07-25T00:00 SELL 565.1900 0.6635 375.00 11.2567 4,229.51 10,591.67
7 2023-08-02T00:00 BUY 552.3500 0.6789 375.00 11.9356 3,805.49 10,398.12
8 2023-08-22T00:00 BUY 538.3700 0.6965 375.00 12.6322 3,318.57 10,119.35
9 2023-08-31T00:00 SELL 549.2800 0.6827 375.00 11.9494 3,827.00 10,390.59
10 2023-09-14T00:00 SELL 564.7700 0.6640 375.00 11.2855 4,194.71 10,568.40
11 2023-09-26T00:00 BUY 552.9600 0.6782 375.00 11.9636 3,563.32 10,178.72
12 2023-09-28T00:00 SELL 568.6300 0.6595 375.00 11.3041 3,976.54 10,404.42
13 2023-10-20T00:00 BUY 552.9300 0.6782 375.00 11.9823 3,563.67 10,189.07
14 2023-11-06T00:00 SELL 569.8200 0.6581 375.00 11.3242 4,085.50 10,538.28
15 2023-11-14T00:00 SELL 590.8000 0.6347 375.00 10.6895 4,638.87 10,954.24
16 2023-11-16T00:00 BUY 578.5800 0.6481 375.00 11.3377 4,271.34 10,831.07
17 2023-11-24T00:00 SELL 591.3600 0.6341 375.00 10.7035 4,685.73 11,015.37
18 2023-12-05T00:00 SELL 605.3500 0.6195 375.00 10.0840 5,034.03 11,138.40
19 2023-12-11T00:00 SELL 623.8600 0.6011 375.00 9.4829 5,516.00 11,432.03
20 2023-12-13T00:00 SELL 642.0000 0.5841 375.00 8.8988 6,005.64 11,718.69
21 2023-12-15T00:00 SELL 658.8200 0.5692 375.00 8.3296 6,404.44 11,892.17
22 2023-12-18T00:00 SELL 681.2400 0.5505 375.00 7.7792 6,806.93 12,106.41
23 2023-12-20T00:00 BUY 661.0000 0.5673 375.00 8.3465 6,365.05 11,882.08
24 2023-12-26T00:00 SELL 674.6200 0.5559 375.00 7.7906 6,863.22 12,118.93
25 2023-12-29T00:00 BUY 660.0800 0.5681 375.00 8.3587 6,465.50 11,982.93
26 2024-01-03T00:00 BUY 644.6900 0.5817 375.00 8.9404 5,913.83 11,677.63
27 2024-01-08T00:00 SELL 661.6900 0.5667 375.00 8.3737 6,387.12 11,927.90
28 2024-01-12T00:00 SELL 683.2400 0.5489 375.00 7.8248 6,834.83 12,181.06
29 2024-01-30T00:00 SELL 700.7400 0.5351 375.00 7.2897 7,472.50 12,580.67
30 2024-02-07T00:00 SELL 719.7800 0.5210 375.00 6.7687 7,965.04 12,837.01
31 2024-02-22T00:00 SELL 734.4000 0.5106 375.00 6.2581 8,452.15 13,048.07
32 2024-03-01T00:00 SELL 749.4400 0.5004 375.00 5.7577 8,972.62 13,287.67
33 2024-03-06T00:00 SELL 773.2400 0.4850 375.00 5.2727 9,210.30 13,287.38
34 2024-03-08T00:00 BUY 725.5600 0.5168 375.00 5.7896 8,840.13 13,040.80
35 2024-03-20T00:00 SELL 740.7200 0.5063 375.00 5.2833 9,310.77 13,224.22
36 2024-04-01T00:00 BUY 721.2400 0.5199 375.00 5.8032 8,960.53 13,146.05
37 2024-04-03T00:00 BUY 705.6900 0.5314 375.00 6.3346 8,528.14 12,998.42
38 2024-04-10T00:00 SELL 722.5800 0.5190 375.00 5.8157 8,831.19 13,033.46
39 2024-05-03T00:00 SELL 743.9000 0.5041 375.00 5.3116 9,147.96 13,099.23
40 2024-05-07T00:00 SELL 771.3100 0.4862 375.00 4.8254 9,624.64 13,346.49
41 2024-05-10T00:00 SELL 787.1900 0.4764 375.00 4.3490 10,037.67 13,461.15
42 2024-05-24T00:00 SELL 809.7300 0.4631 375.00 3.8859 10,773.48 13,919.99
43 2024-06-04T00:00 SELL 827.3900 0.4532 375.00 3.4326 11,064.26 13,904.39
44 2024-06-07T00:00 SELL 845.5800 0.4435 375.00 2.9892 11,648.43 14,176.00
45 2024-06-17T00:00 SELL 867.9100 0.4321 375.00 2.5571 12,579.48 14,798.80
46 2024-06-21T00:00 BUY 848.3100 0.4421 375.00 2.9991 12,077.93 14,622.13
47 2024-07-05T00:00 SELL 885.6700 0.4234 375.00 2.5757 12,854.87 15,136.12
48 2024-07-11T00:00 BUY 846.5900 0.4430 375.00 3.0187 12,370.28 14,925.86
49 2024-07-25T00:00 BUY 815.9500 0.4596 375.00 3.4783 11,148.85 13,986.94
50 2024-08-08T00:00 SELL 839.4300 0.4467 375.00 3.0315 11,275.70 13,820.47
51 2024-08-12T00:00 SELL 863.5700 0.4342 375.00 2.5973 11,734.00 13,976.94
52 2024-08-21T00:00 SELL 881.4200 0.4254 375.00 2.1718 12,917.99 14,832.30
53 2024-08-27T00:00 SELL 908.9000 0.4126 375.00 1.7593 13,139.31 14,738.30
54 2024-08-28T00:00 BUY 888.0500 0.4223 375.00 2.1815 12,615.21 14,552.52
55 2024-09-12T00:00 SELL 915.0300 0.4098 375.00 1.7717 13,040.26 14,661.43
56 2024-09-18T00:00 BUY 892.5200 0.4202 375.00 2.1919 12,616.21 14,572.50
57 2024-09-23T00:00 SELL 917.0800 0.4089 375.00 1.7830 13,301.64 14,936.76
58 2024-09-27T00:00 BUY 885.6200 0.4234 375.00 2.2064 13,028.80 14,982.83
59 2024-10-09T00:00 SELL 909.1000 0.4125 375.00 1.7939 13,575.11 15,205.94
60 2024-10-11T00:00 BUY 889.0300 0.4218 375.00 2.2157 13,205.89 15,175.72
61 2024-11-07T00:00 SELL 913.9300 0.4103 375.00 1.8054 14,121.05 15,771.06
62 2024-11-08T00:00 SELL 943.8000 0.3973 375.00 1.4081 14,512.55 15,841.48
63 2024-11-14T00:00 BUY 923.8900 0.4059 375.00 1.8140 13,983.72 15,659.61
64 2024-11-21T00:00 SELL 955.6500 0.3924 375.00 1.4216 14,256.73 15,615.23
65 2024-12-02T00:00 SELL 975.0000 0.3846 375.00 1.0369 14,922.80 15,933.82
66 2024-12-11T00:00 SELL 994.6900 0.3770 375.00 0.6599 15,721.49 16,377.92
67 2024-12-18T00:00 BUY 964.7400 0.3887 375.00 1.0486 14,947.46 15,959.12
68 2024-12-27T00:00 BUY 939.7000 0.3991 375.00 1.4477 14,748.71 16,109.12
69 2024-12-31T00:00 BUY 916.2700 0.4093 375.00 1.8570 14,053.94 15,755.42
70 2025-01-10T00:00 SELL 936.9400 0.4002 375.00 1.4567 14,317.87 15,682.74
71 2025-01-14T00:00 BUY 917.2300 0.4088 375.00 1.8656 13,883.31 15,594.47
72 2025-01-17T00:00 SELL 943.1900 0.3976 375.00 1.4680 14,716.25 16,100.84
73 2025-01-27T00:00 SELL 965.2500 0.3885 375.00 1.0795 14,878.86 15,920.83
74 2025-02-03T00:00 SELL 1005.8300 0.3728 375.00 0.7067 15,366.70 16,077.48
75 2025-02-05T00:00 SELL 1042.8800 0.3596 375.00 0.3471 16,000.93 16,362.89
76 2025-02-12T00:00 SELL 1065.1200 0.3471 369.68 0.0000 16,414.64 16,414.64
77 2025-02-20T00:00 BUY 1034.8300 0.3624 375.00 0.3624 16,317.10 16,692.10
78 2025-02-25T00:00 SELL 1055.6600 0.3552 375.00 0.0072 15,965.89 15,973.44
79 2025-02-26T00:00 BUY 1031.9700 0.3634 375.00 0.3705 15,629.46 16,011.84
80 2025-03-07T00:00 BUY 964.3100 0.3889 375.00 0.7594 14,562.84 15,295.14
81 2025-03-10T00:00 BUY 934.4100 0.4013 375.00 1.1607 13,623.43 14,708.03
82 2025-03-13T00:00 BUY 890.6200 0.4211 375.00 1.5818 13,121.92 14,530.69
83 2025-03-17T00:00 SELL 916.6100 0.4091 375.00 1.1727 13,901.22 14,976.10
84 2025-03-18T00:00 BUY 898.0500 0.4176 375.00 1.5902 13,289.24 14,717.36
85 2025-03-24T00:00 SELL 926.0400 0.4050 375.00 1.1853 14,115.67 15,213.30
86 2025-03-31T00:00 SELL 945.7800 0.3965 375.00 0.7888 13,865.24 14,611.26
87 2025-04-02T00:00 SELL 965.0800 0.3886 375.00 0.4002 14,454.02 14,840.27
88 2025-04-04T00:00 BUY 916.4800 0.4092 375.00 0.8094 12,455.58 13,197.38
89 2025-04-09T00:00 SELL 965.1900 0.3885 375.00 0.4209 14,107.46 14,513.69
90 2025-04-17T00:00 SELL 994.5000 0.3771 375.00 0.0438 13,819.47 13,863.03
91 2025-04-21T00:00 BUY 957.7700 0.3915 375.00 0.4353 13,102.48 13,519.44
92 2025-04-22T00:00 SELL 979.2300 0.3830 375.00 0.0524 13,821.45 13,872.75
93 2025-05-01T00:00 SELL 999.0400 0.0524 52.33 0.0000 15,030.55 15,030.55
94 2025-06-17T00:00 BUY 977.7200 0.3835 375.00 0.3835 16,134.64 16,509.64
95 2025-06-23T00:00 SELL 1004.4800 0.3733 375.00 0.0102 16,588.01 16,598.27
96 2025-06-26T00:00 BUY 982.9100 0.3815 375.00 0.3917 16,667.61 17,052.65
97 2025-07-16T00:00 BUY 951.3700 0.3942 375.00 0.7859 16,630.40 17,378.09
98 2025-07-30T00:00 BUY 927.5100 0.4043 375.00 1.1902 16,575.60 17,679.54
99 2025-08-01T00:00 SELL 952.5200 0.3937 375.00 0.7965 16,537.98 17,296.68
100 2025-08-07T00:00 SELL 977.4500 0.3837 375.00 0.4129 17,371.60 17,775.17
101 2025-08-25T00:00 BUY 941.5800 0.3983 375.00 0.8111 17,029.56 17,793.31
102 2025-09-05T00:00 SELL 963.4800 0.3892 375.00 0.4219 17,575.96 17,982.47
103 2025-09-22T00:00 BUY 943.2600 0.3976 375.00 0.8195 17,998.51 18,771.49
104 2025-09-26T00:00 BUY 915.9500 0.4094 375.00 1.2289 17,437.30 18,562.91
105 2025-10-09T00:00 SELL 942.8900 0.3977 375.00 0.8312 18,243.28 19,026.99
106 2025-10-29T00:00 BUY 912.4200 0.4110 375.00 1.2422 18,617.19 19,750.58
107 2025-11-04T00:00 SELL 940.7400 0.3986 375.00 0.8436 18,508.44 19,302.00
108 2025-11-10T00:00 BUY 915.5600 0.4096 375.00 1.2531 18,252.40 19,399.72
109 2025-11-18T00:00 BUY 895.0800 0.4190 375.00 1.6721 17,089.00 18,585.65
110 2025-11-28T00:00 SELL 913.5900 0.4105 375.00 1.2616 18,121.41 19,274.02
111 2025-12-05T00:00 BUY 894.6800 0.4191 375.00 1.6808 17,928.72 19,432.47
112 2025-12-10T00:00 BUY 874.4100 0.4289 375.00 2.1096 17,614.77 19,459.46
113 2025-12-19T00:00 BUY 855.6200 0.4383 375.00 2.5479 16,943.39 19,123.43
114 2025-12-26T00:00 SELL 873.3500 0.4294 375.00 2.1185 17,506.21 19,356.43
115 2026-01-02T00:00 BUY 854.5000 0.4389 375.00 2.5574 16,829.01 19,014.29
116 2026-01-05T00:00 SELL 875.7400 0.4282 375.00 2.1292 17,337.68 19,202.28
117 2026-01-08T00:00 SELL 915.3100 0.4097 375.00 1.7195 17,782.26 19,356.11
118 2026-01-12T00:00 SELL 943.0800 0.3976 375.00 1.3218 18,349.27 19,595.87
119 2026-01-16T00:00 SELL 963.6100 0.3892 375.00 0.9327 18,551.36 19,450.10
120 2026-01-23T00:00 SELL 983.2500 0.3814 375.00 0.5513 18,969.96 19,512.02
121 2026-01-28T00:00 BUY 960.7800 0.3903 375.00 0.9416 18,914.82 19,819.49
122 2026-01-30T00:00 BUY 940.2500 0.3988 375.00 1.3404 18,200.79 19,461.13
123 2026-02-02T00:00 SELL 968.3600 0.3873 375.00 0.9532 18,700.76 19,623.78
124 2026-02-05T00:00 SELL 989.2900 0.3791 375.00 0.5741 18,206.34 18,774.31
125 2026-02-13T00:00 SELL 1018.4800 0.3682 375.00 0.2059 18,730.46 18,940.19
126 2026-02-18T00:00 BUY 996.0800 0.3765 375.00 0.5824 18,475.89 19,056.00
127 2026-03-19T00:00 BUY 974.7800 0.3847 375.00 0.9671 17,711.42 18,654.12
128 2026-03-30T00:00 SELL 996.5800 0.3763 375.00 0.5908 17,048.86 17,637.65
129 2026-04-06T00:00 SELL 1018.5500 0.3682 375.00 0.2226 18,346.72 18,573.49
130 2026-04-13T00:00 BUY 980.8500 0.3823 375.00 0.6050 18,872.38 19,465.75
131 2026-04-21T00:00 SELL 1005.8100 0.3728 375.00 0.2321 20,070.88 20,304.36
132 2026-05-13T00:00 SELL 1033.0800 0.2321 239.81 0.0000 22,503.02 22,503.02
133 2026-05-26T00:00 BUY 1002.9300 0.3739 375.00 0.3739 22,618.25 22,993.25
134 2026-05-29T00:00 BUY 956.3200 0.3921 375.00 0.7660 22,491.96 23,224.53
135 2026-06-10T00:00 SELL 983.3700 0.3813 375.00 0.3847 21,507.65 21,885.94