📈 Ladder Backtester Ladder strategy vs. buy & hold

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COST · Costco Wholesale Corporation #1

2025-05-30T00:00 → 2026-05-29T00:00 · fmp · 1d · scale · created 2026-05-30T05:00

Strategy return 3.40% $10,340
Buy & hold return -8.06% $9,194
Strategy − Buy&Hold +11.46 pp $+1,146
Trades 41 / 42 buys / sells
Start price (B)1040.1800 Target (Z)none
Capital (A)10,000 First step (C)6,000
Steps (N)4 Threshold (X)1.0%

Annualized & capital-efficiency metrics (1.00 yr)

Strategy CAGR 3.41% whole pot, annualized
Buy & hold CAGR -8.09% all-in at t0, annualized
Money-weighted IRR 4.36% on capital while deployed
Avg capital deployed 78.6% rest sat idle in cash

CAGR grows the whole pot A, so idle ladder cash dilutes it. IRR counts only dollars actually in the market over time, so it runs higher — the gap is the cash drag, which Avg capital deployed measures directly. IRR only "counts" if that idle cash earns its opportunity cost elsewhere.

Strategy vs benchmarks — returns & drawdown

Series XIRR Max drawdown Downside capture
Ladder strategy 4.36% -14.02%
Buy & hold -8.09% -19.57% 82%

Max drawdown is the bad-market headline — how deep each fell from its high. Downside capture is the bear-market analog to alpha: of a benchmark's loss in its down periods, the share the strategy absorbed (under 100% = protective, negative = the strategy gained while the benchmark fell).

Portfolio value: strategy vs. buy & hold

⬇ Equity CSV

Price & trades

Trade log (84)

⬇ Trades CSV
# WhenActionPriceShares Amount Shares held Cash bal. Portfolio
1 2025-05-30T00:00 INITIAL 1040.1800 5.7682 6,000.00 5.7682 4,000.00 10,000.00
2 2025-06-02T00:00 SELL 1056.8500 0.9462 1,000.00 4.8220 5,000.00 10,096.16
3 2025-06-05T00:00 BUY 1010.8100 0.9893 1,000.00 5.8113 4,000.00 9,874.15
4 2025-06-11T00:00 BUY 996.7800 1.0032 1,000.00 6.8146 3,000.00 9,792.62
5 2025-06-16T00:00 BUY 984.3600 1.0159 1,000.00 7.8304 2,000.00 9,707.98
6 2025-06-23T00:00 SELL 1004.4800 0.9955 1,000.00 6.8349 3,000.00 9,865.53
7 2025-06-25T00:00 BUY 986.5400 1.0136 1,000.00 7.8486 2,000.00 9,742.91
8 2025-07-10T00:00 BUY 970.1700 1.0307 1,000.00 8.8793 1,000.00 9,614.43
9 2025-07-14T00:00 SELL 980.9100 1.0195 1,000.00 7.8598 2,000.00 9,709.79
10 2025-07-15T00:00 BUY 967.6800 1.0334 1,000.00 8.8932 1,000.00 9,605.81
11 2025-07-16T00:00 BUY 951.3700 1.0511 1,000.00 9.9444 0.00 9,460.76
12 2025-08-06T00:00 SELL 968.5600 1.0325 1,000.00 8.9119 1,000.00 9,631.70
13 2025-08-08T00:00 SELL 980.9800 1.0194 1,000.00 7.8925 2,000.00 9,742.39
14 2025-08-12T00:00 SELL 991.2500 1.0088 1,000.00 6.8837 3,000.00 9,823.44
15 2025-08-13T00:00 BUY 978.8500 1.0216 1,000.00 7.9053 2,000.00 9,738.09
16 2025-08-20T00:00 SELL 994.5700 1.0055 1,000.00 6.8998 3,000.00 9,862.36
17 2025-08-21T00:00 BUY 969.6800 1.0313 1,000.00 7.9311 2,000.00 9,690.62
18 2025-08-22T00:00 BUY 958.5400 1.0433 1,000.00 8.9743 1,000.00 9,602.27
19 2025-08-25T00:00 BUY 941.5800 1.0620 1,000.00 10.0364 0.00 9,450.06
20 2025-09-04T00:00 SELL 955.9000 1.0461 1,000.00 8.9903 1,000.00 9,593.79
21 2025-09-08T00:00 SELL 971.8500 1.0290 1,000.00 7.9613 2,000.00 9,737.18
22 2025-09-10T00:00 BUY 956.2900 1.0457 1,000.00 9.0070 1,000.00 9,613.30
23 2025-09-12T00:00 SELL 967.9000 1.0332 1,000.00 7.9738 2,000.00 9,717.87
24 2025-09-16T00:00 BUY 952.0700 1.0503 1,000.00 9.0242 1,000.00 9,591.65
25 2025-09-17T00:00 SELL 963.0300 1.0384 1,000.00 7.9858 2,000.00 9,690.55
26 2025-09-18T00:00 BUY 952.3600 1.0500 1,000.00 9.0358 1,000.00 9,605.34
27 2025-09-26T00:00 BUY 915.9500 1.0918 1,000.00 10.1276 0.00 9,276.35
28 2025-09-30T00:00 SELL 925.6300 1.0803 1,000.00 9.0472 1,000.00 9,374.39
29 2025-10-03T00:00 BUY 915.3800 1.0924 1,000.00 10.1397 0.00 9,281.65
30 2025-10-09T00:00 SELL 942.8900 1.0606 1,000.00 9.0791 1,000.00 9,560.59
31 2025-10-10T00:00 BUY 930.0100 1.0753 1,000.00 10.1544 0.00 9,443.65
32 2025-10-14T00:00 SELL 946.5100 1.0565 1,000.00 9.0978 1,000.00 9,611.20
33 2025-10-16T00:00 BUY 925.6200 1.0804 1,000.00 10.1782 0.00 9,421.15
34 2025-10-17T00:00 SELL 936.3300 1.0680 1,000.00 9.1102 1,000.00 9,530.16
35 2025-10-28T00:00 BUY 924.1600 1.0821 1,000.00 10.1923 0.00 9,419.29
36 2025-11-04T00:00 SELL 940.7400 1.0630 1,000.00 9.1293 1,000.00 9,588.27
37 2025-11-06T00:00 BUY 923.5800 1.0827 1,000.00 10.2120 0.00 9,431.61
38 2026-01-12T00:00 SELL 943.0800 1.0604 1,000.00 9.1517 1,000.00 9,630.75
39 2026-01-15T00:00 SELL 956.7500 1.0452 1,000.00 8.1065 2,000.00 9,755.85
40 2026-01-21T00:00 SELL 982.8600 1.0174 1,000.00 7.0890 3,000.00 9,967.51
41 2026-01-27T00:00 BUY 970.2800 1.0306 1,000.00 8.1196 2,000.00 9,878.33
42 2026-01-29T00:00 BUY 952.8900 1.0494 1,000.00 9.1691 1,000.00 9,737.13
43 2026-01-30T00:00 BUY 940.2500 1.0635 1,000.00 10.2326 0.00 9,621.23
44 2026-02-02T00:00 SELL 968.3600 1.0327 1,000.00 9.2000 1,000.00 9,908.87
45 2026-02-04T00:00 SELL 978.3500 1.0221 1,000.00 8.1778 2,000.00 10,000.78
46 2026-02-05T00:00 SELL 989.2900 1.0108 1,000.00 7.1670 3,000.00 10,090.25
47 2026-02-06T00:00 SELL 1001.1600 0.9988 1,000.00 6.1682 4,000.00 10,175.32
48 2026-02-10T00:00 BUY 971.2300 1.0296 1,000.00 7.1978 3,000.00 9,990.71
49 2026-02-12T00:00 SELL 998.8600 1.0011 1,000.00 6.1966 4,000.00 10,189.58
50 2026-02-13T00:00 SELL 1018.4800 0.9819 1,000.00 5.2148 5,000.00 10,311.16
51 2026-02-18T00:00 BUY 996.0800 1.0039 1,000.00 6.2187 4,000.00 10,194.35
52 2026-02-20T00:00 BUY 985.2700 1.0150 1,000.00 7.2337 3,000.00 10,127.12
53 2026-02-24T00:00 SELL 998.4300 1.0016 1,000.00 6.2321 4,000.00 10,222.32
54 2026-02-26T00:00 BUY 986.7400 1.0134 1,000.00 7.2455 3,000.00 10,149.46
55 2026-02-27T00:00 SELL 1010.7900 0.9893 1,000.00 6.2562 4,000.00 10,323.72
56 2026-03-05T00:00 BUY 982.5700 1.0177 1,000.00 7.2740 3,000.00 10,147.17
57 2026-03-06T00:00 SELL 998.1000 1.0019 1,000.00 6.2721 4,000.00 10,260.13
58 2026-03-13T00:00 SELL 1008.4300 0.9916 1,000.00 5.2804 5,000.00 10,324.92
59 2026-03-17T00:00 BUY 996.1600 1.0039 1,000.00 6.2843 4,000.00 10,260.13
60 2026-03-18T00:00 BUY 979.9200 1.0205 1,000.00 7.3048 3,000.00 10,158.08
61 2026-03-23T00:00 BUY 965.7300 1.0355 1,000.00 8.3402 2,000.00 10,054.42
62 2026-03-26T00:00 SELL 979.6500 1.0208 1,000.00 7.3195 3,000.00 10,170.52
63 2026-03-30T00:00 SELL 996.5800 1.0034 1,000.00 6.3160 4,000.00 10,294.44
64 2026-04-02T00:00 SELL 1014.9600 0.9853 1,000.00 5.3308 5,000.00 10,410.53
65 2026-04-08T00:00 SELL 1030.2700 0.9706 1,000.00 4.3602 6,000.00 10,492.14
66 2026-04-10T00:00 BUY 998.4700 1.0015 1,000.00 5.3617 5,000.00 10,353.49
67 2026-04-13T00:00 BUY 980.8500 1.0195 1,000.00 6.3812 4,000.00 10,259.01
68 2026-04-17T00:00 SELL 999.8900 1.0001 1,000.00 5.3811 5,000.00 10,380.51
69 2026-04-23T00:00 SELL 1014.3800 0.9858 1,000.00 4.3953 6,000.00 10,458.49
70 2026-04-27T00:00 BUY 998.0100 1.0020 1,000.00 5.3973 5,000.00 10,386.53
71 2026-04-30T00:00 SELL 1014.5300 0.9857 1,000.00 4.4116 6,000.00 10,475.70
72 2026-05-06T00:00 BUY 995.7500 1.0043 1,000.00 5.4159 5,000.00 10,392.85
73 2026-05-07T00:00 SELL 1012.0600 0.9881 1,000.00 4.4278 6,000.00 10,481.18
74 2026-05-11T00:00 BUY 999.4700 1.0005 1,000.00 5.4283 5,000.00 10,425.43
75 2026-05-12T00:00 SELL 1021.8800 0.9786 1,000.00 4.4497 6,000.00 10,547.08
76 2026-05-13T00:00 SELL 1033.0800 0.9680 1,000.00 3.4817 7,000.00 10,596.92
77 2026-05-15T00:00 SELL 1048.9500 0.9533 1,000.00 2.5284 8,000.00 10,652.18
78 2026-05-18T00:00 SELL 1076.4700 0.9290 1,000.00 1.5994 9,000.00 10,721.76
79 2026-05-19T00:00 SELL 1094.3200 0.9138 1,000.00 0.6856 10,000.00 10,750.31
80 2026-05-20T00:00 BUY 1074.0100 0.9311 1,000.00 1.6167 9,000.00 10,736.38
81 2026-05-21T00:00 BUY 1050.4500 0.9520 1,000.00 2.5687 8,000.00 10,698.29
82 2026-05-22T00:00 BUY 1028.2400 0.9725 1,000.00 3.5412 7,000.00 10,641.24
83 2026-05-26T00:00 BUY 1002.9300 0.9971 1,000.00 4.5383 6,000.00 10,551.61
84 2026-05-29T00:00 BUY 956.3200 1.0457 1,000.00 5.5840 5,000.00 10,340.08